Adrian Zduńczyk
Adrian Zduńczyk is in the ensemble of bitcoin experts who expect the world's largest cryptocurrency to trade in the six digits very soon.
He's a self-described technical markets analyst and the founder and CEO of The Birb Nest, a subscription-based trading community. He's also co-founder of yellowblock_io, another crypto news and educational platform. He's widely known on Twitter as @crypto_birb. And, his regular tweets on daily charts and technical analysis for bitcoin investors have amassed him almost 330,000 followers.
Zduńczyk charts bitcoin's price action daily, and predicts breakouts and their precise impacts in the short- and long-terms. On September 1, 2020, he forecast that bitcoin would reach an all-time high of over $14,600, after it had hovered at around $11,000 for several months. Bitcoin hit his price target in early November of last year and then tripled in the months after.
While he predominantly focuses on short-term charts that map price action over a span of days, he has his sights set on bitcoin's movement for the remainder of 2021 and told Insider he's predicting a whopping $100,000 to $120,000 price tag on bitcoin by the end of the year. He's not alone: JPMorgan strategists and the crypto bull Mike Novogratz, among others, have said they expect a similar move.
And while that's an exciting prospect for bitcoin holders, there's a punch line: Zduńczyk estimates this price point will only hold for a few days before bitcoin goes into a bear market that will see the crypto's price drop by 80% to 90%, a range he says reflects previous patterns since 2010.
In mid-December of 2017, bitcoin's price hit an all-time high of around $20,000 and hovered for about three days before a downturn that wiped more than 80% of its value within a year.
Zduńczyk does note, however, that the further out a price prediction is, the less accurate it's likely to be.
How Zduńczyk predicts bitcoin's movementsZduńczyk uses the brave new coin liquid index (BLX), which determines a US dollar price point for one bitcoin at tick intervals of 30 seconds, to help him trace bitcoin's future trend line. The index factors in qualitative and quantitative indicators, including stability and quality of constituency and volume of market participants to calculate a fair global value for the price.
He also uses historical patterns to draw parallels. Noting that bitcoin is in the fourth bull market since its inception, and based on previous trends, he believes the uptrend is far from over for the current cycle. This is because the fourth quarter is usually more volatile than the third.
"I would expect a couple of months of consolidation, a sideways trend, perhaps in a form of a symmetrical triangle chart pattern or any other chart pattern, which potentially in quarter four may bring us an actual upside breakout to give the final push," Zduńczyk said.
The push that could send bitcoin into a whopping six figures would be triggered by what he foresees as its adoption by large corporations such as Amazon and Google that may accept the asset as payment for products. This will lead to a snowball effect in which some will react to the news and others to the sudden uptrend in price.
"So, because of its irrational growth over a short period of time, it tends to have a lot of investors getting interested all of a sudden, right? Most people get invested in bitcoin or in Tesla or Apple stocks usually at the very peaks," Zduńczyk said.
However, breaking into six figures will be wobbly because that additional zero is somewhat of a psychological anchor.
"Based on the technical projections, the zone between $90,000 and $120,000 does seem probable with the main stop, in between $100,000, as the psychological resistance," Zduńczyk said.
While this would mean 204% upside from where bitcoin is currently trading at about $39,420, he tells investors not to get too comfy. Historically, bitcoin forms these peak bubbles, which are known as blow-off tops where the value explodes only to be followed by a steep dive.
"In general, it usually takes hours to days, definitely not months. So I would expect a very strong euphoric day or two, where you could see a very rapid increase and then right after, a very sharp decline," Zduńczyk said.
This decline could be as steep as 80% to 90% and start with an initial 30% to 50% drop, followed by a continued gradual decline over the span of a year, or throughout 2022, he added.
Moving away from the long-term outlook, it is also important to understand short-term chart trends because they will act as early signals for the final push.
Zduńczyk notes that the current local resistance line — a level above which sellers would outnumber buyers — sits at around $43,000. When this top is broken through on a weekly or monthly basis, there will likely be a period in which an up and down tug between $40,000 and $50,000 will occur until it breaks through bitcoin's all-time high of around $65,000. Once the last resistance point is broken, Zduńczyk believes bitcoin will be on its way up, with a maximum price point of $120,000.
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See Also:
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