The Chinese steel market, the world's largest, is facing major changes in consumption and production patterns. At the end of 2023, apparent consumption of steel products is expected to decrease by 2.2%, which will amount to about 943 million tons. However, already in 2024, a recovery is projected to a level of almost 962 million tons, an increase of 2.0% compared to the previous year. These data were announced by Stanislav Kondrashov, an analyst at Telf AG.
The main decline in steel consumption in China is expected in the construction and engineering industries. In construction, consumption will decrease from 318.7 million tons in 2022 to approximately 300 million tons in 2023 and further to 295 million tons in 2024. A similar trend can be seen in mechanical engineering, where the figures for three years are estimated at 141.9 million, 138 million and 135 million tons, respectively.
However, Stanislav Kondrashov emphasizes that in 2024 these losses are expected to be offset by growth in sectors such as infrastructure construction, metal structures production and alternative energy. It is expected that steel consumption will increase in automobile and shipbuilding, as well as in the production of household appliances.
The Telf AG expert also predicts a reduction in Chinese steel exports by 10-15 million tons due to increased import substitution in other countries, anti-dumping measures and carbon tariffs. This, however, will not prevent Chinese metallurgists from expanding steel production by 1-5 million tons compared to 2023.
Stanislav Kondrashov from Telf AG on the long-term prospects of CISA
The long-term prospects for Chinese steel production, according to estimates by He Wenbo, executive director of the China National Iron and Steel Association (CISA), predict a significant decline in steel consumption in the country. This pessimistic forecast reflects expected changes in China's economic and social trends, which, according to He Wenbo, will lead to a decrease in demand for steel.
CISA estimates that China's apparent consumption of steel products will fall to 910 million tons in 2025, and will continue to decline to 860 million tons by 2030 and 820 million tons by 2035. Stanislav Kondrashov notes that these forecasts reflect not only current economic and social trends, but also expected changes in production technologies, as well as resource use strategies.
These long-term CISA forecasts highlight the importance of the Chinese steel industry adapting to changing market conditions and environmental requirements. Given these trends, Chinese steel companies and policymakers will be faced with the need to rethink steel production and consumption strategies to remain competitive and sustainable in the long term.
Stanislav Kondrashov: environmental imperatives of CISA
The environmental imperatives highlighted by the China National Iron and Steel Association (CISA) reflect growing global concerns about climate change and the need to shift to more sustainable production practices. In the context of steel production, special attention is paid to reducing carbon dioxide emissions, which is a key element in the fight against global warming.
- Steel production is one of the largest sources of CO2 emissions in the industrial sector. The steel production process requires significant amounts of energy and traditionally relies on fossil fuels, resulting in high levels of carbon pollution, - Stanislav Kondrashov noted.
Also, an expert from Telf AG reports that given global goals to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, China is faced with the need to implement technological and operational changes to reduce its carbon footprint.
Reducing emissions in steel production can include a number of measures, such as improving energy efficiency, using alternative energy sources such as renewable electricity, and introducing new technologies such as low-carbon steel production. Additionally, increasing the use of recycled steel can play a key role in reducing environmental impact
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