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Olaplex (NASDAQ:OLPX) Posts Better-Than-Expected Sales In Q4 CY2025 But Stock Drops

OLPX Cover Image

Hair care company Olaplex (NASDAQ: OLPX) announced better-than-expected revenue in Q4 CY2025, with sales up 4.3% year on year to $105.1 million. On the other hand, the company’s full-year revenue guidance of $424.5 million at the midpoint came in 1.6% below analysts’ estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.01 per share was in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.

Is now the time to buy Olaplex? Find out by accessing our full research report, it’s free.

Olaplex (OLPX) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:

  • Revenue: $105.1 million vs analyst estimates of $104 million (4.3% year-on-year growth, 1.1% beat)
  • Adjusted EPS: $0.01 vs analyst estimates of $0.01 (in line)
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $12.86 million vs analyst estimates of $9.62 million (12.2% margin, 33.7% beat)
  • Operating Margin: -4.3%, down from 3% in the same quarter last year
  • Market Capitalization: $1.19 billion

Amanda Baldwin, OLAPLEX’s Chief Executive Officer, commented: "We ended 2025 on a high note with fourth quarter sales growth of 4.3%. In 2025, we delivered on our Bonds & Beyond transformation priorities, driving renewed brand momentum and building a consistent innovation pipeline while strengthening execution and sharpening strategic focus. As we enter 2026, we do so with a clear path forward and a more balanced, sustainable approach to investment and growth."

Company Overview

Rising to fame on TikTok because of its “bond building" hair products, Olaplex (NASDAQ: OLPX) offers products and treatments that repair the damage caused by traditional heat and chemical-based styling goods.

Revenue Growth

Examining a company’s long-term performance can provide clues about its quality. Any business can have short-term success, but a top-tier one grows for years.

With $423 million in revenue over the past 12 months, Olaplex is a small consumer staples company, which sometimes brings disadvantages compared to larger competitors benefiting from economies of scale and negotiating leverage with retailers.

As you can see below, Olaplex struggled to generate demand over the last three years. Its sales dropped by 15.6% annually, a tough starting point for our analysis.

Olaplex Quarterly Revenue

This quarter, Olaplex reported modest year-on-year revenue growth of 4.3% but beat Wall Street’s estimates by 1.1%.

Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 2.2% over the next 12 months. While this projection indicates its newer products will fuel better top-line performance, it is still below average for the sector.

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Cash Is King

Free cash flow isn't a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it's telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king.

Olaplex has shown terrific cash profitability, driven by its lucrative business model that enables it to reinvest, return capital to investors, and stay ahead of the competition. The company’s free cash flow margin was among the best in the consumer staples sector, averaging 22.6% over the last two years. Olaplex has shown terrific cash profitability relative to peers over the last two years, giving the company fewer opportunities to return capital to shareholders.

Olaplex Trailing 12-Month Free Cash Flow Margin

Key Takeaways from Olaplex’s Q4 Results

We were impressed by how significantly Olaplex blew past analysts’ EBITDA expectations this quarter. We were also glad its EPS was in line with Wall Street’s estimates. On the other hand, its full-year revenue guidance missed. This outlook is weighing on shares. The market seemed to be hoping for more, and the stock traded down 6.7% to $1.66 immediately following the results.

Should you buy the stock or not? What happened in the latest quarter matters, but not as much as longer-term business quality and valuation, when deciding whether to invest in this stock. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here (it’s free).

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