Tesla has had an impressive run over the past six months as its shares have beaten the S&P 500 by 10.8%. The stock now trades at $406.74, marking a 15.9% gain. This run-up might have investors contemplating their next move.
Is now the time to buy Tesla, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? Get the full stock story straight from our expert analysts, it’s free.
Why Do We Think Tesla Will Underperform?
We’re happy investors have made money, but we're cautious about Tesla. Here are three reasons there are better opportunities than TSLA and a stock we'd rather own.
1. Demand Slips as Sales Volumes Slide
Revenue growth can be broken down into changes in price and volume (the number of units sold). While both are important, volume is the lifeblood of a successful Automobile Manufacturing company because there’s a ceiling to what customers will pay.
Tesla’s units sold came in at 418,227 in the latest quarter, and they declined by 4.9% annually over the last two years. This performance was underwhelming and implies there may be increasing competition or market saturation. It also suggests Tesla might have to lower prices or invest in product improvements to grow, factors that can hinder near-term profitability. 
2. Free Cash Flow Margin Dropping
Free cash flow isn't a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it's telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king.
As you can see below, Tesla’s margin dropped by 2.8 percentage points over the last five years. It may have ticked higher more recently, but shareholders are likely hoping for its margin to at least revert to its historical level. If the longer-term trend returns, it could signal it is in the middle of an investment cycle as it pursues new AI technologies such as a robotaxi or humanoid robot fleet. Tesla’s free cash flow margin for the trailing 12 months was 6.6%.
3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines
A company’s ROIC, or return on invested capital, shows how much operating profit it makes compared to the money it has raised (debt and equity).
We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is what often surprises the market and moves the stock price. While Tesla’s ROIC fell recently due to its price cuts, the broader trend is still healthy as its ROIC is higher than a few years ago. This is because it’s investing aggressively to capture the AI opportunity. Only time will tell if these investments bear fruit in higher long-term ROICs.
Final Judgment
Tesla doesn’t pass our quality test. With its shares outperforming the market lately, the stock trades at 197.2× forward price-to-earnings (or $406.74 per share). At this valuation, there’s a lot of good news priced in - we think other companies feature superior fundamentals at the moment. We’d suggest looking at a dominant Aerospace business that has perfected its M&A strategy.
Stocks We Would Buy Instead of Tesla
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