What Happened?
Shares of burger restaurant chain Red Robin (NASDAQ: RRGB) jumped 32.8% in the morning session after the company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and provided an optimistic outlook for 2026. For its fourth quarter, Red Robin's adjusted loss per share of $0.41 was better than analyst forecasts, and revenue also topped projections. Although comparable restaurant sales fell 3.1% in the quarter due to a drop in traffic, investors appeared to focus on the company's full-year performance and future guidance. For the full year 2025, adjusted EBITDA grew by 53% to $69.7 million, and the company's net loss narrowed significantly compared to the previous year. Looking ahead, the company projected comparable restaurant revenue growth between 0.5% and 1.5% and adjusted EBITDA between $70 million and $73 million for 2026, signaling confidence in its continued financial improvement.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Red Robin’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 53 moves greater than 5% over the last year. But moves this big are rare even for Red Robin and indicate this news significantly impacted the market’s perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 3 days ago when the stock dropped 1.9% on the news that the Trump administration's announcement of new global tariffs, reignited trade policy uncertainty. The move came swiftly after the Supreme Court ruled the previous week that the president could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for such duties, a decision that had initially sent markets higher. However, the administration invoked a different authority, the Trade Act of 1974, to impose a 15% global tariff for up to 150 days. The rapid reimposition of trade barriers creates significant uncertainty for companies across multiple sectors that depend on international supply chains and global trade. Investors are now weighing the potential impact of these new duties on corporate earnings and broader economic activity.
Red Robin is up 15.9% since the beginning of the year, but at $4.80 per share, it is still trading 35.5% below its 52-week high of $7.44 from July 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Red Robin’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $156.40.
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