Wolters Kluwer: 100% of leading US economists expect Fed rate cut this week; Vast majority predicting 25bps reduction; 17% forecasting cut of 50bps

Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators also shows 63% of economists predicting that AI will disrupt labor markets in three to five years

Wolters Kluwer has published the September 2024 issue of its Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey, which finds all of the panel’s 37 leading economists anticipating a Fed rate cut this week. The Blue Chip consensus also places a 31% probability that the U.S. will enter a recession in the next 12-months – up just slightly from 29% in June.

Since 1976, Wolters Kluwer Blue Chip Economic Indicators has been the leading monthly forecast sourced from an expert panel of economists that are employed by some of America's largest and most respected manufacturers, banks, insurance companies.

Highlights include:

• A majority (86%) of economists forecast a September rate cut equating to 25 basis points (bps). Only 17% expect a cut of 50bps.
• The consensus forecast calls for a 25bps cut at each of the three remaining Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings this year – a total of 76bps. Additionally, economists anticipate 117bps of rate cuts spanning all of 2025.
• Economists forecast that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.4% next quarter – the highest since October 2021 – with little change expected in 2025.
• A significant majority (97%) of economists believe that AI will eventually disrupt labor markets, increasing demand in some sectors while reducing demand in others. Most (63%) also believe that change will occur in the next three to five years.

Each month’s Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey highlights the predictions of each individual panel member as well as a consensus – or average – forecast for the direction of variables such as real gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index and the unemployment rate.

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About Wolters Kluwer

Wolters Kluwer (EURONEXT: WKL) is a global leader in information, software solutions and services for professionals in healthcare; tax and accounting; financial and corporate compliance; legal and regulatory; corporate performance and ESG. We help our customers make critical decisions every day by providing expert solutions that combine deep domain knowledge with technology and services.

Wolters Kluwer reported 2023 annual revenues of €5.6 billion. The group serves customers in over 180 countries, maintains operations in over 40 countries, and employs approximately 21,400 people worldwide. The company is headquartered in Alphen aan den Rijn, the Netherlands.

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