Rigetti Computing (RGTI), one of the leading names from the world of quantum computing, is scheduled to report its results for the fourth quarter of 2025 on Wednesday, March 4, after the market closes. Along with names like Ionq (IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Rigetti's name has emerged as one of the potential winners in quantum computing, the next battleground of tech.
Founded in 2013, Rigetti develops superconducting quantum computers and provides access to them through cloud-based platforms. Its business model centers on Quantum Computing-as-a-Service (QCaaS), allowing enterprise, government, and research customers to run quantum algorithms remotely via classical cloud infrastructure.
Notably, Rigetti currently commands a market capitalization of $5.83 billion. RGTI stock has been under pressure this year, falling by 22% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. However, over the past year, RGTI stock has more than doubled, rallying by 124% in the last 52 weeks.
Expectations and a Q3 Recap
For the upcoming Q4 report, analysts are looking for a sequential recovery in revenue following a dip in Q3. Investors are particularly focused on whether the company's recent commercial wins are beginning to hit the top line.
Overall, projections are for revenue of $2.46 million in Q4 and a loss per share of $0.05, narrower than the previous year's loss of $0.08 per share. After Q3 revenue fell and missed estimates, the market expects Q4 to be bolstered by the $5.8 million Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) contract and the delivery of Novera QPU systems.
Specifically, the third quarter saw Rigetti report revenue of $1.9 million, down from $2.4 million in the year-ago period. However, losses narrowed to $0.03 per share from $0.07 in the corresponding period a year ago. Notably, this was the first quarter of narrower-than-expected losses from the company after four consecutive quarters of estimate misses.
Research and development expenses increased by about 18% year-over-year (YOY) to $15 million. This seems to be paying off presently, as Rigetti remains on track to “deploy a 150+ qubit system by or around the end of 2026 with an anticipated 99.7% median two-qubit gate fidelity, and a 1,000+ qubit system by or around the end of 2027 with an anticipated 99.8% median two-qubit gate fidelity.”
Net cash used in operating activities for the first nine months of 2025 rose to $43.6 million from $42.1 million in the prior year. Overall, Rigetti ended the September 2025 quarter with a cash balance of $26.1 million, which was above its short-term debt levels of $2.2 million.
Meanwhile, Rigetti continues to trade at remarkably high valuations, which is concerning for a company with patchy revenue growth and unprofitability. Its forward EV/sales and price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of 669.8 and 720.4 times are nowhere near the sector medians.
Is Rigetti Worth It?
A source of this overvaluation stems from the fact that the quantum computing market is set to explode, with some expecting it to have as profound an impact as AI. According to a study by consulting major McKinsey, quantum computing has the potential to create value of about $1.3 trillion by 2035.
But what is Rigetti offering to win this market? Well, for starters, Rigetti is pivoting from a purely cloud-based research model toward a high-margin, hardware-centric commercial strategy. The core of this offering is their proprietary modular chiplet architecture, which allows for scaling qubit counts by tiling smaller, high-yield processors together. This approach addresses the industry's biggest bottleneck, which is the manufacturing complexity of large-scale superconducting circuits.
Furthermore, Rigetti's integration with Nvidia's (NVDA) NVQLink and the deployment of the Novera QPU for the broader R&D community suggests a "full-stack" play that emphasizes speed and hybrid classical-quantum compatibility. While competitors like IonQ lead in gate fidelity, Rigetti’s value proposition rests on its 1,000-qubit roadmap (targeted for 2027) and its ability to manufacture these systems in-house at its dedicated Fab-1 facility, potentially offering a more pragmatic path to industrial-scale quantum advantage.
However, significant hurdles remain before any meaningful “quantum advantage” can be realized. Achieving practical utility is widely expected to require more than 1,000 physical qubits, two-qubit gate fidelity above 99.9%, gate times below 50 nanoseconds, and effective error correction. Rigetti has not yet met any of these thresholds and continues to project several additional years before such milestones are within reach.
How Do Analysts View RGTI Stock?
Accordingly, analysts have deemed RGTI stock to be a “Moderate Buy” with a mean target price of $40.30, which indicates potential upside of about 134% from current levels. Out of 11 analysts covering the stock, seven have a “Strong Buy” rating, one has a “Moderate Buy” rating, and three have a “Hold” rating.
On the date of publication, Pathikrit Bose did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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