The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.64%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.46%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.15%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are up +0.60%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are up +1.22%.

Stock indexes are moving higher today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting 1.5-week highs.  Strength in AI-infrastructure stocks and chipmakers is leading the broader market higher.   Stocks have some carryover support from Tuesday, when AI startup Anthropic PBC eased AI disruption concerns after saying its new AI tools for its Claude Cowork agent software will integrate rather than displace existing systems.  The markets await Nvidia’s earnings results after today’s close to see if the surge in artificial intelligence spending is continuing.  Bloomberg estimates Nvidia’s Q4 revenue to be $65.91 billion. 

In Tuesday night's State of the Union address, President Trump doubled down on his commitment to tariffs.  President Trump’s new 10% global tariffs went into effect on Tuesday after the Supreme Court struck down his global “reciprocal” tariffs last Friday. Mr. Trump subsequently threatened to raise the global tariff rate to 15%, and an administration official said the White House is working on a formal order to implement that higher rate, but the timeline for its implementation has not been finalized.  Mr. Trump is applying the 10% baseline levy under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows the president to impose the charge for 150 days without congressional approval. 

Geopolitical risks are a negative for stocks.  Tuesday evening, President Trump said Iranian officials are "again pursuing their sinister nuclear ambitions," boosting speculation that the US may be preparing a military strike on Iran in the coming days.  US-Iran nuclear talks are scheduled to resume on Thursday in Geneva, and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said he saw a “good chance” of a diplomatic solution to the standoff over his country’s nuclear program.  Last Friday, President Trump said that he’s considering a limited military strike on Iran to ramp up pressure on the country to strike a deal over its nuclear program, and that he thought 10 to 15 days was “pretty much” the “maximum” he would allow for negotiations to continue.

US MBA mortgage applications rose +0.4% in the week ended February 20, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down -4.7% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up +4.1%.  The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -8 bp to a nearly 3.5-year low of 6.09% from 6.17% in the prior week.

The market’s focus this week will be on corporate earnings results and economic news.  After today’s close, Nvidia will release its earnings results.  On Thursday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to climb by +10,000 to 216,000.  On Friday, the Feb MNI Chicago PMI is expected to slip -1.8 to 52.2. 

Q4 earnings season is nearing its end, with more than 88% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 441 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.

The markets are discounting a 2% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.

Overseas stock markets are higher today.  The Euro Stoxx 50 rose to a new record high and is up +0.74%.  China’s Shanghai Composite climbed to a 3.5-week high and closed up +0.72%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 rallied to a new all-time high and closed up +2.20%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are down by -5.5 ticks.  The 10-year T-note yield is up +2.7 bp to 4.056%.  T-notes are under pressure today from strength in stocks, which is curbing safe-haven demand for government debt.  Also, supply pressures are bearish for T-notes as the Treasury will auction $70 billion of 5-year T-notes later today. 

European government bond yields are moving higher today.  The 10-year German bund yield is up +0.8 bp to 2.715%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield is up +2.3 bp to 4.328%.

The German Mar GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell -0.5 to -24.7, weaker than expectations of an increase to -23.0.

Swaps are discounting a 2% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on March 19.

US Stock Movers

AI-infrastructure stocks and chipmakers are climbing today to support gains in the broader market. Western Digital (WDC) is up more than +5%, and Lam Research (LRCX) and Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) are up more than +4%.  Also, KLA Corp (KLAC) and Micron Technology (MU) are up more than +3%, and ASML Holding NV (ASML), Analog Devices (ADI), Broadcom (AVGO), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are up more than +1%. 

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are rallying today, with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) up more than +4%.  Coinbase Global (COIN) is up more than +5%, and Strategy (MSTR) is up more than +4%.  Also, Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) is up more than +3%, and MARA Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) are up more than +2%.

Alcoholic beverage producers are sliding today after Diageo Plc, the maker of Guinness beer and Johnnie Walker whiskey, cut its sales guidance due to further weakness in the US market. Brown-Forman Corp (BF.B) is down more than -8%, Molson Coors Beverage (TAP) is down more than -4%, and Constellation Brands (STZ) is down more than -3%. 

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is up more than +22% after reporting Q4 total revenue and reserve income of $770 million, stronger than the consensus of $747 million.

Cava Group (CAVA) closed up more than +20% after forecasting full-year restaurant comparable sales will climb +3% to +5%, stronger than the consensus of +2.75%. 

Axon Enterprise (AXON) is up more than +15% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after reporting Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.15, well above the consensus of $1.56. 

Albemarle (ALB) is up more than +8% to lead lithium producers higher after Zimbabwe suspended exports of lithium concentrates and raw minerals. 

Lumen Technologies (LUMN) is up more than +6% after saying it is looking to expand adjusted Ebitda margins “from 27.1% in 2025 to approximately the mid 30% range by 2030.” 

Oracle (ORCL) is up more than +1% after Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to outperform from perform with a price target of $185.

Oddity Tech Ltd (ODD) is down more than -53% after saying it expects its revenue for the first quarter of 2026 to decline -30% year-over-year.  

GoDaddy (GDDY) is down more than -16% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after forecasting full-year revenue of $5.20 billion to $5.28 billion, the midpoint below the consensus of $5.28 billion. 

MercadoLibre (MELI) is down more than -8% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 after saying it is heavily investing to build its own agentic AI tools, spurring concerns that the heavy spending on AI will pressure its margins. 

Lowe’s (LOW) is down more than -4% after forecasting 2027 adjusted EPS of $12.25 to $12.75, below the consensus of $13.00. 

Workday (WDAY) is down more than -3% after forecasting 2027 subscription revenue of $9.93 billion to $9.95 billion, weaker than the consensus of $10 billion.   

Kinsale Capital Group (KNSL) is down more than -2% after BMO Capital Markets downgraded the stock to underperform from market perform with a price target of $348. 

Earnings Reports(2/25/2026)

Agilent Technologies Inc (A), APA Corp (APA), Ferrovial SE (FER), Lowe's Cos Inc (LOW), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), Paramount Skydance Corp (PSKY), Pinnacle West Capital Corp (PNW), Salesforce Inc (CRM), Synopsys Inc (SNPS), TJX Cos Inc/The (TJX), TKO Group Holdings Inc (TKO), Trade Desk Inc/The (TTD), Universal Health Services Inc (UHS), VICI Properties Inc (VICI).

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